India's Registrar General released preliminary findings from the long-delayed 2025 census on Tuesday, revealing a dramatic slowdown in population growth. The total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 — below the replacement level of 2.1 — driven by improving female literacy, urbanization, and access to healthcare.
Regional Variations
Southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have fertility rates comparable to Western Europe at around 1.4, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remain above replacement at 2.4 and 2.3 respectively. The data suggests that India's population will peak around 2060, earlier than many demographers had projected.
Urban areas across the country show uniformly low fertility rates regardless of state. The census also reveals accelerating internal migration, with tier-2 cities growing faster than metropolitan areas for the first time.
Policy Implications
Economists say the data calls for a fundamental rethink of India's development strategy. With the dependency ratio set to rise from the 2040s onward, the window to capitalize on the demographic dividend is narrower than previously assumed.
"This is both good news and a warning. India has at most 15-20 years to create the jobs, skills, and infrastructure needed to harness its working-age population," said economist Jean Drèze.
The government has promised to release the complete census report, including detailed district-level data, by September. The last census was conducted in 2011, with the 2021 exercise postponed due to the pandemic.
